- Mar 29, 2019-


Recently, some domestic chemical products began a new round of decline, methanol also ranked among them, including the main contract MA1905 of methanol futures fell to 2362 yuan/ton at night, 281 yuan/ton lower than 2643 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, a decline of more than 10%. In this downturn, each product has its own logic. Then, whether methanol has been killed by mistake or not, we will analyze it next.

For methanol, the main shortfalls are: high inventory, sound water explosion, value-added tax rate reform. Expectable profits are spring maintenance, downstream rework and new MTO put into production. For methanol, it is obvious that the current spot logic, the concentration of bad fermentation led to a decline in prices. However, these problems are clearly not viewed rationally in the market, resulting in the overlapping of panic and a sharp decline in prices.

Coastal areas should be accustomed to high inventory

Unlike ethylene glycol, there are many reasons for this round of high methanol inventory, but what needs to be pointed out here is that future coastal areas may be accustomed to high methanol inventory. Analyzing the current inventory structure of coastal areas in China, we can find that Jiangsu accounts for about 530,000 tons of methanol in nearly one million tons of domestic methanol inventory. Among them, there are raw materials stockpiles of Nanjing Chengzhi's newly built methanol-to-olefin reserve, bonded stocks of the normal reserve in the Yangtze River International Bonded Zone and the standing stocks of Zhejiang methanol-to-olefin enterprises leasing along the Yangtze River Reserve Zone. Material stock. The stock of 260,000 tons in Zhejiang is basically the stock of raw materials for methanol-to-olefin enterprises, which is at a reasonable level. Nearly 200,000 tons of stock in Guangdong and Fujian are at a reasonable level.

People familiar with methanol inventory will find that the contradiction of this round of inventory accumulation lies in Jiangsu, and the main domestic saleable inventory is concentrated in this area, but in fact, the total saleable inventory is at a reasonable level, and there is no excessive increase. Once again, we will find that about half of the stocks in Jiangsu are bonded goods, raw materials and hedged goods. Among them, hedged goods have become the focus of attention, but in fact, the hedged goods are less than 100,000 tons, and the impact on the port area as a whole is very limited.

For port areas, we may be accustomed to high inventory in the future. Firstly, the bonded area in Zhangjiagang will have a large number of bonded goods all the year round, which will always occupy the stock share. Second, with the increase of new methanol-to-olefin plants in coastal areas, apart from the stock of standing raw materials in Xingxing, Zhejiang and Fude, Nanjing Chengzhi's new 600,000-ton methanol-to-olefin plant will also occupy a part of the stock. In the future, there should be 800,000-900,000 tons of methanol stock in normal port areas. If it is below this range, the supply of methanol will exceed the demand.

The impact of the sound water explosion will dissipate rapidly.

For the impact of the Xiangshui explosion, the current market reaction is fierce. On the spot side, first, methanol consumption is reduced, the speed of de-inventory is slowed down, and second, the price of downstream products has risen sharply. Among them, formaldehyde has been seriously in short supply. The price of formaldehyde in Jiangsu has risen from 1300 yuan/ton in the earlier period to 1500 yuan/ton at present, which started downstream of formaldehyde. In fact, the reduction of production caused by the shutdown of some enterprises has raised prices. The inspection also resulted in load reduction and even overhaul of methanol plants in Shanxi, Hebei, North Jiangsu and other areas. The loss of methanol production is also huge.

According to the current information, the dangerous chemicals enterprises around Xiangshui will complete the safety inspection and rectification around April 10, and the compliance enterprises will be able to resume their work. The impact of this problem is expected to dissipate quickly.

The impact of VAT rate has been exaggerated

The original intention of the national tax reduction policy is to reduce the tax burden of enterprises and increase their income. It is not to reduce the price of enterprises'products. This biased reading has caused many products prices to fall. Recent understanding, the national tax reform is a transitional period for a certain period of time, in fact, the tax reduction of VAT has begun to implement. For enterprises, the actual contract of supply and marketing signed by enterprises can first deliver goods. When issuing invoices, they choose to execute 16% or 13%, not all the implementation of 13%. Obviously, the news has also been misread or even misread.

The future market of methanol is still promising

After the concentrated landing fermentation in Likong, methanol market is still facing better expectations. This round of decline, port areas and futures are hard hit areas. For the Mainland, due to the spring maintenance, the goods in the Mainland are still strong. Among them, the discount area of deliverable goods in Inner Mongolia has reached more than 2800 yuan/ton. Jiutai methanol olefin plant has been put into operation with obvious effect. Before the new methanol plant in Northwest China was put into operation in October, northwest China is expected to continue to maintain a strong position and export volume will further decrease.

New methanol to olefin plants in the second quarter are expected to have 300,000 tons/year in Luxi Chemical Industry (000830) and 600,000 tons/year in Chengzhi, Nanjing. When they are put into operation, about 2.7 million tons/year of methanol will be required, and both of them are located in the eastern region, with predictable impact.

It is expected that after the end of the Xiangshui incident, the demand for methanol downstream in the eastern region will increase explosively, which can alleviate the price surge caused by the downstream production decline. The traditional downstream will gradually step out of the demand off-season, ushering in the peak demand season, and the speed of inventory removal in coastal areas will be accelerated. If the supply of equipment overhaul abroad is reduced, it is possible to quickly move from high inventory to low inventory.